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The American unemployment rate dipped from 10 percent to 9.7 percent in January, the Labor Department reported Friday, buoying hopes that the worst job market in at least a quarter-century is finally improving.
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The economy shed another 20,000 net jobs during the course of the month, underscoring the considerable strains remaining in millions of American households. Yet that marked a continued decline in the pace of deterioration. Economists focused on a host of encouraging signs that suggested recovery following the worst recession since the Great Depression.
Manufacturing added 11,000 jobs in January, the first monthly increase since November 2007, while factories saw a modest increased in the length of the workweek. Temporary workers grew by 52,000, and the overall American workweek lengthened, reinforcing the view that commercial activity is awakening after more than two years of veritable hibernation.
“It does signal that the economy is continuing to improve,” said John E. Silvia, chief economist at Wells Fargo in Charlotte, N.C. “You don’t have a boom, but you have an economic recovery. It’s a positive sign.”
Yet despite the hopeful indications, the government’s monthly snapshot of the labor Converse All Star Shoes market came wrapped in an unusual degree of statistical uncertainty, economists said, intensifying the debate about the staying power and vigor of the apparent economic recovery.
The Labor Department revised past data to show that the economy comprised 1.36 million fewer jobs in December Converse Revolution Shoesthan previously thought. The revisions showed the economy lost 150,000 jobs in December — far more than the 85,000 initially reported.
The report also featured a new way in which the government estimates the population, which is used to calculate the unemployment rate. That prompted some economists to dismiss the drop in joblessness as a statistical quirk.
“The message is, you can’t believe what they tell you,” said Joshua Discount Converse All Star Shoes Shapiro, chief United States economist at MFR Inc. in New York. “Everyone goes crazy over today’s number, but history has been rewritten. Things are not comparable from month to month.”
Mr. Shapiro focused on the caution that still grips many households amid a Cheap Converse All Star Shoes
time of economic anxiety, suggesting this will continue to dampen consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy. That should keep employers reluctant to hire, limiting the wages that workers have to spend at other businesses.
“The question is, what is the rate of improvement going to Cheap Converse All Star Shoes
be?” he asked. “Very slow. We don’t see companies going crazy on the hiring.”
Some forecasts envision the jobless rate reaching nearly 11 percent by the end of the year, which would raise the prospect of new shocks to the system: a retreat in consumer spending, and fresh fears in the banking system as jobless people lose the wherewithal to pay their mortgages, amplifying an already disturbing wave of foreclosures.
Such gloomy visions are at the center of concerns that the ending of the Great Recession could merely mark the beginning of a long period of disappointingly slow growth, or perhaps a pause before another downturn—one that could be difficult to escape.
“Businesses are still very cautious,” said Nigel Gault, an economist Fashion Converse Jack Purcell Shoesfor IHS Global Insight.
Construction continued to suffer in January, shedding 75,000 net jobs. Transportation and warehousing lost 19,000 net jobs.
Small companies complain that loans remain exceedingly difficult to secure, limiting their ability to expand and hire. Businesses with fewer than 500 employees hold more than half of the nation’s private-sector jobs, according to the Small Business Administration.
In Cleveland, Kirk K. Meurer, the owner of store that sells office furniture, has frozen the pay of his 30 employees and stopped buying new cars in an effort to trim costs. He has a $250,000 loan, but complains that it has been difficult to persuade his bank to lend any more, limiting his contribution to spending in the local economy.
“I’m being very frugal with my decisions,” Mr. Meurer said. “For us to hire, we need to see a turn in the economy.”
But many economists took the January jobs report as evidence that such a turn is indeed at hand.
For months, American business has been defined by what economists refer to as productivity growth: companies have expanded their output of goods and services without increasing their labor. January’s data — particularly the increase in manufacturing and the hours worked — Cheap Converse All Star Shoes appeared to signal that employers finally feel enough confidence in the expanding business opportunities to add to payrolls.
Health care, long a bright spot in a largely dismal economy, added 17,000 net jobs in January. Retail jobs swelled by 42,000, though some economists suggested this could be reflective of the way the Labor Department adjusts for seasonal factors. Professional and business services added 44,000 jobs.
“We’ve seen a surge in demand for graphic designers and people who create display advertising for the Web,” said Fabio Rosati, chief executive of Elance, an online job market for freelance computer programmers and other tech-related workers. “There’s been an increasCheap Converse All Star Shoes e in confidence among employers over the last few months.”
Adding to the sense that employers are finally inclined to add labor as they expand production, the number of so-called involuntary part-time workers — people who cannot find full-time jobs, or whose hours have been cut — fell from 9.2 million to 8.3 million in January.
But even amid the welcome evidence of improvement, the report offered up another batch of evidence that times remain bitterly hard for millions of Americans, with a long slog through lean times likely ahead.
The so-called underemployment rate — which counts the involuntary part-timers along with people who have given up looking for work — sat at 16.5 percent in January. That amounted to an improvement from the 17.3 percent seen a month earlier, yet it was nearly double the level of three years ago.
Those who have been out of work for six months or longer swelled from 6.1 million in December to 6.3 million in January, the highest level since the government began tracking such data in 1948.
“Things are getting bad less rapidly,” said Dean Baker, Discount Converse One Star Shoes co-director of the liberal Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington. “We’re sort of hitting bottom, but there is no evidence of a robust turnaround.”
